Poisson Power Ratings, all 48 teams
Attack–defense Poisson model fit on every completed match, with expected goals from ESPN’s match data. The blended rating (70% xG / 30% goals) and its shrinkage were chosen by 10-fold cross-validation, not by hand.
How to use these numbers
Everything is in log-goals. To get a scoreline: λA = μ · exp(attA − defB) is A’s expected goals per 90′ against B, where μ = 1.17 is the league-average rate (an average attack against an average defense). Feed both λs into independent Poissons for full score probabilities.
Example — Argentina v Japan: λARG = 1.17·e(+0.46 − 0.19) ≈ 1.54, λJPN = 1.17·e(−0.04 − 0.53) ≈ 0.66. Rules of thumb: +0.69 of total rating ≈ outscores an average side 2:1; a 0.10 gap ≈ 55/45 on any single goal.
Attack is goals created above average; defense is goals prevented (higher = better for both). Total = attack + defense. The goals-only and xG-only columns are separate fits with their own CV-tuned shrinkage (τ=0.5 vs τ=1.0 — held-out data trusts raw scorelines less, so it shrinks them harder).
| Team | GP | Blend rating | Total | Att | Def | Goals-only | xG-only | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Spain ESP | 7 | +1.54 | +0.49 | +1.05 | +1.21 #1 | +1.61 #1 | |
| 2 |  France FRA | 7 | +1.08 | +0.57 | +0.51 | +0.95 #2 | +1.08 #3 | |
| 3 |  Argentina ARG | 7 | +0.99 | +0.46 | +0.53 | +0.78 #3 | +1.10 #2 | |
| 4 |  Brazil BRA | 5 | +0.84 | +0.54 | +0.30 | +0.57 #7 | +0.94 #4 | |
| 5 |  England ENG | 7 | +0.66 | +0.38 | +0.28 | +0.57 #6 | +0.67 #8 | |
| 6 |  Colombia COLcold | 5 | +0.64 | +0.05 | +0.59 | +0.42 #11 | +0.72 #6 | |
| 7 |  Mexico MEXhot | 5 | +0.59 | +0.26 | +0.33 | +0.65 #4 | +0.56 #10 | |
| 8 |  Senegal SENcold | 4 | +0.55 | +0.54 | +0.01 | +0.25 #17 | +0.70 #7 | |
| 9 |  Belgium BELhot | 6 | +0.54 | +0.37 | +0.17 | +0.63 #5 | +0.41 #14 | |
| 10 |  Canada CANcold | 5 | +0.50 | +0.32 | +0.18 | +0.16 #19 | +0.75 #5 | |
| 11 |  Norway NOR | 6 | +0.47 | +0.42 | +0.05 | +0.31 #14 | +0.54 #11 | |
| 12 |  Switzerland SUI | 6 | +0.45 | +0.19 | +0.26 | +0.32 #13 | +0.53 #12 | |
| 13 |  Morocco MARhot | 6 | +0.44 | +0.19 | +0.25 | +0.47 #9 | +0.40 #15 | |
| 14 |  Germany GER | 4 | +0.42 | +0.42 | -0.00 | +0.36 #12 | +0.52 #13 | |
| 15 |  Portugal PORhot | 5 | +0.40 | +0.20 | +0.20 | +0.51 #8 | +0.33 #17 | |
| 16 |  Uruguay URUcold | 3 | +0.39 | +0.20 | +0.18 | +0.00 #26 | +0.60 #9 | |
| 17 |  Netherlands NEDhot | 4 | +0.29 | +0.15 | +0.14 | +0.46 #10 | +0.12 #21 | |
| 18 |  Türkiye TURcold | 3 | +0.16 | +0.41 | -0.24 | -0.21 #32 | +0.31 #19 | |
| 19 |  Japan JPNhot | 4 | +0.15 | -0.04 | +0.19 | +0.25 #16 | +0.06 #23 | |
| 20 |  Ecuador ECUcold | 4 | +0.14 | -0.09 | +0.23 | -0.21 #33 | +0.37 #16 | |
| 21 |  Congo DR COD | 4 | +0.13 | -0.03 | +0.16 | +0.01 #24 | +0.21 #20 | |
| 22 |  South Korea KORcold | 3 | +0.13 | -0.02 | +0.15 | -0.13 #29 | +0.32 #18 | |
| 23 |  United States USAhot | 5 | +0.10 | +0.25 | -0.15 | +0.25 #15 | -0.02 #24 | |
| 24 |  Ivory Coast CIV | 4 | +0.06 | -0.01 | +0.07 | +0.08 #21 | +0.10 #22 | |
| 25 |  Iran IRN | 3 | -0.03 | -0.11 | +0.08 | +0.03 #23 | -0.12 #26 | |
| 26 |  Cape Verde CPVhot | 4 | -0.05 | -0.07 | +0.03 | +0.13 #20 | -0.17 #27 | |
| 27 |  Egypt EGYhot | 5 | -0.05 | +0.08 | -0.13 | +0.21 #18 | -0.26 #30 | |
| 28 |  Australia AUShot | 4 | -0.15 | -0.44 | +0.29 | +0.04 #22 | -0.28 #31 | |
| 29 |  Austria AUT | 4 | -0.15 | +0.09 | -0.24 | -0.13 #28 | -0.17 #28 | |
| 30 |  Algeria ALGcold | 4 | -0.17 | +0.01 | -0.18 | -0.31 #35 | -0.06 #25 | |
| 31 |  Croatia CROhot | 4 | -0.21 | +0.09 | -0.30 | +0.00 #25 | -0.36 #32 | |
| 32 |  South Africa RSAcold | 4 | -0.26 | -0.37 | +0.12 | -0.21 #34 | -0.20 #29 | |
| 33 |  Ghana GHAhot | 4 | -0.28 | -0.42 | +0.14 | -0.06 #27 | -0.41 #33 | |
| 34 |  Sweden SWEhot | 4 | -0.38 | -0.01 | -0.37 | -0.19 #31 | -0.53 #36 | |
| 35 |  Paraguay PARhot | 5 | -0.49 | -0.67 | +0.18 | -0.14 #30 | -0.72 #43 | |
| 36 |  Bosnia-Herzegovina BIH | 4 | -0.50 | -0.43 | -0.07 | -0.33 #36 | -0.60 #38 | |
| 37 |  Czechia CZEcold | 3 | -0.52 | -0.15 | -0.37 | -0.45 #39 | -0.47 #34 | |
| 38 |  Saudi Arabia KSA | 3 | -0.52 | -0.38 | -0.13 | -0.37 #38 | -0.59 #37 | |
| 39 |  Scotland SCO | 3 | -0.52 | -0.30 | -0.21 | -0.36 #37 | -0.52 #35 | |
| 40 |  Panama PAN | 3 | -0.59 | -0.49 | -0.10 | -0.49 #41 | -0.61 #39 | |
| 41 |  Jordan JOR | 3 | -0.61 | -0.30 | -0.31 | -0.49 #42 | -0.66 #41 | |
| 42 |  New Zealand NZLhot | 3 | -0.62 | -0.06 | -0.56 | -0.46 #40 | -0.77 #45 | |
| 43 |  Haiti HAI | 3 | -0.69 | -0.29 | -0.40 | -0.60 #43 | -0.70 #42 | |
| 44 |  Iraq IRQcold | 3 | -0.79 | -0.39 | -0.40 | -0.91 #47 | -0.65 #40 | |
| 45 |  Uzbekistan UZB | 3 | -0.82 | -0.23 | -0.59 | -0.88 #45 | -0.73 #44 | |
| 46 |  Qatar QAT | 3 | -1.06 | -0.34 | -0.72 | -0.87 #44 | -1.07 #46 | |
| 47 |  Curaçao CUW | 3 | -1.09 | -0.46 | -0.63 | -0.89 #46 | -1.08 #47 | |
| 48 |  Tunisia TUN | 3 | -1.12 | -0.55 | -0.57 | -0.94 #48 | -1.21 #48 |